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Domenici eyeing reconciliation for ANWR bill

Pete Domenici (R-NM), the incoming chairman of the Senate Energy Committee, has said that he's hopeful incoming Senate Budget Committee Chairman Don Nickles (R-Okla.) will attach an Arctic National Wildlife Refuge drilling provision to the FY '04 budget reconciliation bill, but if not, the open-ANWR effort will almost certainly be revived as part of a comprehensive energy effort this spring and summer.

"We might do it either way," Domenici said.

Moving ANWR via reconciliation essentially protects it from Democratic filibuster threats since reconciliation bills cannot be filibustered. Nickles has indicated support for the idea, though he has refused to say specifically if ANWR would make the cut. A similar tactic was used in 1995 to pass ANWR legislation, but former President Clinton ultimately vetoed the bill.

If Republicans choose to roll ANWR into a reconciliation package, two obstacles stand in the way in the Senate: the vote count itself and the Senate parliamentarian, who has to rule in favor of including ANWR as "a substantial revenue measure," according to a Senate bylaw called the Byrd Rule that limits how policy gets included in reconciliation bills. If the parliamentarian rules against ANWR, the Senate needs 60 votes to bypass the Byrd Rule, but all indications point to ANWR passing the test, as it did in 1995, because of the billions of dollars in federal oil royalties the refuge would potentially net.

And even if ANWR passes the Byrd Rule test, still in the way is the straight up-or-down vote. Sources point out that ANWR failed this test last year when a drilling amendment from former Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-Alaska) failed 46-54, with eight Republicans crossing party lines to vote ANWR down. Only one of those Republicans -- Sen. Robert Smith (N.H.) -- has been replaced with a pro-ANWR vote (Republican Sen. John Sununu), as Sens. Olympia Snowe (Maine), Peter Fitzgerald (Ill.), John McCain (Ariz.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), Lincoln Chafee (R.I.), Susan Collins (Maine) and Mike DeWine (Ohio) all voted against the ANWR provision last April.
At the same time, five Democratic senators broke ranks last year, with Sens. John Breaux (La.), Mary Landrieu (La.), Zell Miller (Ga.), Daniel Akaka (Hawaii) and Daniel Inouye (Hawaii) voting for Murkowski's ANWR amendment.

A quick look at the results of the November election points to a significant shift that barely favors environmentalist drilling opponents since Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) campaigned against Bush's ANWR policy in Minnesota. Other newcomers who could shakes things up -- Sens. Jim Talent (R-Mo.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) and Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) -- would more than likely side with the administration, resulting in a three-seat swing if the status quo holds.

If Chambliss and Talent vote for ANWR, that would tentatively leave the vote count at 49 for drilling and 51 against, with only one vote separating Vice President Cheney from breaking a tie in favor of commercialization. Sununu, Chambliss and Talent would represent the changed votes from last year under this scenario.